French Regional Elections 2010First Round Analysis

Here are some thoughts after the results of the first round of the 2010 French Regional Elections.

If you’ve read any of the press reports you know the big loser of this election is President Nicolas Sarkozy whose Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP) did about as bad as any mainstream rightwing party has ever done in a French election.

One of the most telling headlines I saw had the winners as ‘nonparticipation’ and the far right Front National (FN). That’s true, as one plays into the other. The FN generally does better in elections when there is a low voter turnout – as in 2002 when FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen made it into the second round of the presidential election and sent shockwaves throughout France. In the first round of the Regional Elections just over half of French voters didn’t vote. This very much helped the FN.

The left did well also, as the Parti socialiste (PS) proved it still a vote machine and maybe, just maybe the leadership struggle that has been going on since 2002 is about to be settled as head Martine Aubry seems to be able to lead the party, for now. The other big winner was Europe Écologie (EE) who might, just might be the big new kid on the block that the PS won’t be able to kick around and throw scraps to as a coalition partner. The big question is will EE be as strong in a few years, most notability in 2012 for the Presidential elections.

Talking about 2012, what significance, if any do these elections have on 2012? Well the left did well in the last Regional Elections in 2004 and yet lost the Presidential election three years later. Sarkozy is wounded and there is even talk that the right can do better than him as a candidate.

I don’t buy it. Sarkozy is still the right’s best chance to win in 2012. To me the real key is, along with an improvement in the economy, if the left will be able to unify and rally around a candidate, unlike in 2007 and if that person will be a strong candidate. Contrasting with 2007, when PS candidate Ségolène Royal really never proved herself under fire, never could rally the troops and made to many verbal gaffs, to be taken serious by the French who expect their president to speak perfect French.