NewsletterApril 2007 - Election Special

Sarco vs Ségo

The preliminary results are in and it’s Nicholas Sarcozy aka Sarco vs. Ségolène Royal aka Ségo. This is the battle that most had expected but that François Bayrou for a time anyway tried to upset with his rise in the polls. At one point Bayrou was even with Royal in some polls. The second round is May 6th.

The preliminary results for the first round are:

• Nicolas Sarkozy: 30.6%
• Ségolène Royal: 25.0%
• Francois Bayrou: 18.8%
• Jean-Marie Le Pen: 11.0%
• Olivier Besancenot: 4.3%
• Philippe de Villiers: 2.5%
• Marie-George Buffet: 2.0%
• Dominique Voynet: 1.6%
• Arlette Laguiller: 1.5%
• José Bové: 1.3%
• Frédéric Nihous: 1.2%
• Gérard Schivardi: 0.3%

The race is now on to court those that voted for Bayrou. In the last days of the campaign some called for an agreement between Bayrou and Royal where the one that didn’t make it into the second round would support the other. That never happened and it’s not clear who Bayrou will support. It seems from exit polls that his voters are split evenly between Sarkozy and Royal.

What is clear is that Sarkozy was able to take away many of Le Pen’s voters, which explains how Le Pen went from 17% in 2002 to 11% this year. Sarkozy moved to the right on issues like national identity and immigration, taking some of Le Pen’s ideas. Le Pen is on the far right on just about all issues. What is building thanks to this move to the right, some would say extreme right, is an anti-Sarkozy backlash. Already anti-globalization candidate José Bové has call on his voters to vote against Sarkozy.

It’s not clear how much this will play out in the next two weeks. It could have an effect as Royal in just about every head to head match up with Sarkozy is behind and can’t seem to find her footing. So the only chance she might have is to make the election a referendum on Sarkozy. Sarkozy on the other hand needs to shore up his base and keep his momentum going. His 30% in the first round was the best anyone has done in almost 20 years.

One final word, unlike in 2002 where there was an abstention rate of almost 30% for the first round. This year it was just over 20%. There is a lot of disillusionment in France with the way things are going. Mostly this has to do with the slow economy and an unemployment rate that can’t seem to get under 8%. But this year that didn’t translate into people not voting. It seems that the 2002 election when Le Pen made it into the second round is still having an effect on French politics. See Newsletter June 2002.

For anyone interested in seeing photos of among other things a French voting card, candidates' posters and voting booths please see - French Presidential Election 2007.